Economic Outlook: Downside UP/Upside DOWN

8 April 2015

Economic Cycles

Economic cycles are nothing new. Not at all. From ancient times until today widespread droughts mark them. Economists attempt to predict them – the causes and effects. Wars add appropriate punctuation.

Economic-Cycle-sinewave-chart

Joseph foresaw by divine revelation a great depression in Egypt. His boss accepted Joseph’s counsel. Subsequently, Joseph’s prescribed preparation saved alive countless souls, including his own family.

Russian economist and statistician Nikolay Dmitriyevich Kondratyev (1892-1938) reduced his historical study of economics to a fifty-year economic cycle known today as the Kondratief Wave. Who was this man? According to the Encyclopedia Britannica:

Nikolai-KondratievKondratyev [alternate spelling – Kondratieff] attended St. Petersburg University. He was a member of the Russian Socialist Revolutionary Party from 1917 to 1919. From 1920 to 1928 he taught at the Timiriazev Agricultural Academy and was director of the Institute for the Study of Business Activity. He established contact with foreign economic agencies, and in 1924 he lectured in the United States and Great Britain. During this period he helped to develop the first of the Soviet five-year plans, as well as devising methodology for the analysis of economic factors that would stimulate Soviet economic growth.

For all his contributions to the science of economics, he was awarded imprisonment and execution. That’s right, they killed the messenger. Leftist governments want only agreement. They truly don’t want facts, real science and history to get in the way of their Utopian agenda. Why was he executed? Stalin ordered the execution because his academic work propounded that the capitalist system would not collapse as a result of the great depression of 1929.

rabbi jonathan cahnComing up to date, let’s consider the prophetic writings and warnings of one Rabbi Jonathan Cahn. Rabbi Cahn has written two best-selling books that provide an interested reader “good reads” on history and current financial prospects: The Harbinger and The Mystery of the Shemitah.

Rabbi Cahn makes a compelling case for the Biblical seven-year cycle known by Jewish Bible students as the Shemitah. A year of Jubilee marks the fiftieth year that follows the seventh Shemitah.

Rabbi Cahn uncovered the 50-year Jubilee/Shemitah cycles from his studies of the Bible and ancient Jewish wisdom.  Economist Kondratieff derived his theory of what is now known as the Kondratieff Wave from history – and probably a lot of common sense.

click on image for full size
click on image for full size

Some would say the credit cycle (expansion and contraction of access to credit) causes the economic cycles described above. The Bible indicates this cycle is ordained of God. Regardless your point of view, the cycle is real and it’s going to dramatically affect our lives. This year.

Where Are We Now?

2015 is a Shemitah year. This present Shemitah year (Jewish calendar) ends September 13, 2015. Regardless world events, we’ll see no change in stock markets, because the 13th is a Sunday. Monday will be another story. You see, the Jewish year of the Jubilee begins September 14, 2015.

Jews marked the first Jubilee in the year 1367 BC. Will Jubilee 2015 be the last?

Better question: Are you prepared for a dramatic economic downturn? Now, I appeal to you not to send me to the firing squad to join Mr. Kondratieff. Never shoot the messenger.

Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee. – Pastor John Donne

John White
Rockwall, Texas

Further Reading – Added April 9, 2015

Chicago Credit May Be Cut To Junk

Saudi ‘to borrow to finance soaring deficit’, says report

Swiss Government Becomes First Ever To Issue 10Y Debt At A Negative Yield

Jamie Dimon warns next crisis could see ‘more volatile’ markets

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